The recent
reelection of Hugo Chavez by a margin greater
than President Obama’s decisive victory in 2008 and the shenanigans
perpetrated by Argentina’s populist president Cristina Kirchner suggest
that populist socialism and doctored
statistics are alive and well in parts of Latin America.
Let's be blunt: populist socialism doesn't benefit anyone
but the rulers of these countries and their pliant cronies in the public
sector. The gains in welfare are more than offset by a neutered private sector
that won't create jobs and runaway inflation. Real wages have actually declined in Venezuela and barely improved in Argentina, while they have markedly improved
in places such as Brazil. It gives the social capitalism popular in Latin
America a bad name.
This is precisely why the moderate segments of Latin
America (Brazil, Chile, Colombia, et. al) should more strongly condemn the
populist socialism going on in Venezuela and Argentina. The U.S. can play a
pivotal role in discouraging the proliferation of populist socialism in Latin
America, but it must work in tandem with countries such as Brazil or Chile to
maximize legitimacy (especially considering its stigma as a historic
imperialist). America can feasibly convince
these countries that because populist socialism reduces efficiency and stunts
economic growth, it also reduces the level of Latin American trade that would
increase standards of living. Right now, with the exception of Colombia and Venezuela, relations
among Latin American countries are fairly good. This must be changed to create
external pressure for reform.
Here are
some guidelines on what the moderate social capitalists should do:
- They should push Venezuela and Argentina to increase the independence of their media and official statistics. Presently, both are completely pliant to the populists and spread propaganda to advance their agenda. Due to the lack of outside information, large swathes of the population are persuaded by the lies.
- In Venezuela, they should encourage fair elections. During this particular election, Capriles received a paltry 3 minutes on television while the airwave was saturated with propaganda supporting Chavez. Chavez used the full resources of the government to dole out political patronage and bus his supporters to the polls. Voter intimidation was apparent: supporters of Capriles were pelted by stones on occasion by red-shirted Chavez supporters, and one incident left 3 Capriles supporters dead. Public sector workers feared that the ballot was not secret and voting against Chavez would cause them to lose their jobs. In other words, Chavez rigged the game to his favor from the start.
- They should emphasize the dangers of populist socialism: cronyism, inefficiency, a neutered private sector that won’t create jobs, depressed economic growth, and rampant inflation associated with skyrocketing government spending. At the same time, they should highlight how their own model of balanced social capitalism would better reduce poverty, increase standards of living, create a robust middle class, increase resource production and overall efficiency, and result in stronger economic growth. They should strongly encourage basic reformations that would decrease the inherent cronyism under the current system.
How exactly to encourage the
reformation of these populists is debatable. One way is to implement targeted
sanctions on the elite leadership: this would entail freezing their assets
abroad and depriving them of their visas. Another effective way is imposing
light tariffs on certain products and conditioning their lift on fulfilling the
two demands listed above. Finally, Latin America can kick countries of populist
socialists out of multilateral groups such as MERCOSUR until they reduce the
level of cronyism in their countries.
Whatever the case, all U.S. action
must be committed with at least two
other Latin American members. If the U.S. acts unilaterally, it risks creating the rally-around-the-flag effect
and further entrenching the populists.
Populist socialism has great costs
for the citizens of Venezuela and Argentina. It is high time to apply smart
power to end their reign.
No comments:
Post a Comment